Canada’s Refugee Resettlement Targets for 2024 and Beyond Series - Part 8 Climate Refugees: Is Canada Ready for the Next Wave of Displacement?

1. Introduction

In January 2013, CNN Travel listed a trip to the Maldives as one of five "urgent experiences for 2013." This might have been an ordinary recommendation if it weren’t for one crucial detail: rising sea levels are threatening to make the Maldives uninhabitable, possibly within our lifetime. Reports that sea levels are "exceeding our worst expectations" suggest that this low-lying nation in the Indian Ocean, home to about 400,000 citizens, may disappear decades ahead of schedule.

For more than 25 years, governments have been warned that climate change could lead to the forced migration of millions of people. Now, as the impact of climate change becomes more visible, the international community’s concerns about mass migration are escalating. While some displacement will come directly from rising sea levels and extreme weather events making certain regions unlivable, much of it will also stem from slow environmental degradation that triggers food, water, and energy shortages. Such shortages could lead to armed conflict and further violence, adding to the urgency of migration.

According to national security experts in the United States, "Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world." Low-lying island nations, along with the least developed countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, are the most vulnerable and likely to produce climate migrants in the near future.

2. Likely Number of Climate Migrants

Estimating the number of people forced to move due to climate change is complicated, with projections for 2050 ranging from 25 million to 1 billion. However, the most commonly cited estimate is 200 million climate migrants by mid-century. Another study suggests that up to 600 million people—10% of the world’s population—are at extreme risk because of climate change.

These numbers depend on several interrelated factors, such as future population growth, the scale and timing of climate-related events, and the extent to which these events motivate people to leave their homes. A more precise estimate is available for those displaced by rising sea levels: one study projects that between 7 million and 300 million people could be flooded each year with a global temperature increase of 3 to 4 degrees Celsius, which would cause a 20-80 cm rise in sea levels.

For comparison, the number of refugees officially recognized by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in 2011 was around 10.5 million, which is only 5% of the climate migrants predicted for 2050. The UNHCR recently reported that more people are already displaced annually by natural disasters than by conflict.

Most experts believe that the majority of people displaced by climate change will stay within their own countries. However, a fraction will likely seek to relocate abroad. Even if only a small percentage of climate migrants aim for resettlement in Canada, it could be a significant number relative to Canada’s current intake of new residents. In 2011, Canada accepted 249,000 new permanent residents, of whom only 36,200 were for humanitarian reasons.

3. Canada’s Legal Obligations Toward Climate Migrants

Many argue that Canada should play an active role in addressing the climate migrant crisis. The reasons are compelling:

• To support international peace and stability,
• To mitigate environmental damage that might result from unregulated mass migration,
• To fulfill a moral obligation, given Canada’s contribution to global emissions,
• And to provide humanitarian assistance.

In December 2010, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which includes Canada, adopted the Cancún Agreements. These agreements promote understanding, coordination, and cooperation regarding climate change-related displacement, migration, and planned relocation.

3.1 Canada’s Current Role in Resettling Climate Migrants

Canada’s existing humanitarian immigration programs—such as those for refugees and humanitarian and compassionate cases—do not specifically recognize climate migrants. Refugees accepted by Canada must fall under one of two categories:

• Convention refugees, who fear persecution based on race, religion, nationality, or political opinion, or
• Persons in similar circumstances.

Unfortunately, environmental and economic factors do not currently qualify under either category. Even those who arrive in Canada and claim protection because they face torture or risk of death in their home countries are not recognized as climate refugees. Canada’s discretionary power in immigration policy allows for flexibility in humanitarian cases, but this power has yet to be used for climate migrants.

In rare cases, Canada grants temporary resident permits to individuals in compelling circumstances, but these have not been issued to climate migrants either.

3.2 A Future Role for Canada

Canada has long been among a select group of countries that accept an annual quota of refugees from abroad. In 2010, for instance, 22 countries resettled 98,800 refugees, with the United States leading the way (71,400 refugees), followed by Canada (12,100), and Australia (8,500).

It is impossible to predict exactly how many climate migrants will need resettlement each year. Still, the climate crisis will likely increase pressure on Canada’s humanitarian immigration system in the coming decades. While the resettlement of climate migrants may pose challenges, such as language barriers and the mismatch of skills with the Canadian labor market, it also presents an opportunity. Migrants who successfully integrate into the workforce could help boost Canada’s economy and contribute to the country’s development.

However, resettling climate migrants abroad is an expensive solution, generally reserved for cases where local integration or repatriation is impossible. For many climate migrants, the most effective solution may be adaptation within their own countries, supported by development assistance from countries like Canada. This assistance could help with strengthening coastal defenses or resettling populations within their borders.

Nonetheless, these are short-term coping mechanisms. The real solution lies in addressing the root cause: reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow the progression of climate change.

4. Conclusion

Climate change is poised to displace hundreds of millions of people in the coming decades. Canada must act now to plan an effective and orderly response to this impending crisis. By embracing both humanitarian assistance and proactive climate action, Canada has the chance to lead in addressing one of the defining challenges of our time.